Copa Libertadores Semi-finals
Global 1-2
Boca Juniors vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.5%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.1%
23.4%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 1965 |
IND
2 - 0
BOC
56%
23%
21%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 1965 |
BOC
2 - 0
STR
71%
17%
13%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Feb. 1965 |
BOC
4 - 0
QUI
70%
17%
13%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1965 |
STR
2 - 3
BOC
52%
24%
24%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1965 |
QUI
1 - 2
BOC
51%
24%
25%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 1965 |
IND
2 - 0
BOC
56%
23%
21%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1964 |
IND
2 - 2
SLO
56%
22%
22%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1964 |
ATL
2 - 1
IND
38%
26%
36%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | -1 |
| 22 Nov. 1964 |
IND
1 - 0
CHA
62%
21%
17%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1964 |
BOC
1 - 0
IND
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |