Copa Libertadores Final
Global 5-0
Boca Juniors vs Grêmio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.9%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.1%
21%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun. 2007 |
BOC
1 - 0
BEL
77%
16%
7%
|
85 | 65 | 20 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2007 |
BOC
3 - 0
CUC
72%
17%
11%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Jun. 2007 |
COL
2 - 1
BOC
28%
25%
48%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2007 |
CUC
3 - 1
BOC
37%
25%
38%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | -1 |
| 27 May. 2007 |
BOC
3 - 1
GIM
73%
17%
10%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jun. 2007 |
VAS
4 - 0
GRE
49%
25%
26%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2007 |
SAN
3 - 1
GRE
59%
24%
18%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | -1 |
| 02 Jun. 2007 |
BOT
3 - 0
GRE
52%
24%
24%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2007 |
GRE
2 - 0
SAN
32%
26%
43%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 May. 2007 |
GRE
1 - 0
SPO
65%
21%
14%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |