Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 2-1
Boca Juniors vs Bolívar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.6%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.2%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.5%
11.5%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 1
ALM
70%
19%
11%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 0
BOC
41%
26%
34%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 2004 |
QUI
0 - 1
BOC
28%
28%
45%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | +1 |
| 01 Dec. 2004 |
SCI
0 - 0
BOC
46%
27%
27%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 3
NOB
57%
23%
20%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec. 2004 |
OPE
9 - 0
BOL
59%
21%
19%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
3 - 1
UNI
70%
17%
13%
|
69 | 60 | 9 | +2 |
| 09 Dec. 2004 |
STR
7 - 0
BOL
46%
26%
28%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | -2 |
| 08 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 0
BOC
41%
26%
34%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 2
OPE
58%
21%
21%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | -1 |