Bella Vista vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
3%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.2%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
56.7%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
0-1
11.7%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10.4%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.5%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
9.1%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.7%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bella Vista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
FEN
2 - 1
BVS
56%
24%
20%
|
67 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2011 |
UCO
3 - 0
BVS
63%
20%
17%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | -2 |
| 03 Aug. 2011 |
BVS
1 - 1
UCO
32%
25%
44%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | +1 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
RIV
2 - 2
BVS
68%
19%
14%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2011 |
BVS
0 - 1
CER
47%
27%
26%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
ETS
74%
17%
9%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
MAL
4 - 0
PEÑ
51%
23%
26%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Aug. 2011 |
LEV
0 - 2
PEÑ
43%
24%
33%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2011 |
ARI
1 - 2
PEÑ
33%
26%
42%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2011 |
SAN
2 - 1
PEÑ
54%
22%
24%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |