Buxton vs Merthyr Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.9%
Win probability
2.29
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.3%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.6%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.4%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
17.3%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.3%
10.7%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Buxton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
SOU
1 - 4
BUX
36%
26%
38%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2022 |
BUX
2 - 1
DAR
51%
24%
25%
|
45 | 44 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
BRA
2 - 0
BUX
48%
27%
26%
|
46 | 50 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
BUX
2 - 1
HYD
57%
22%
21%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
SPE
0 - 1
BUX
36%
26%
39%
|
45 | 41 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Merthyr Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
MER
1 - 2
MET
31%
24%
46%
|
36 | 42 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2022 |
MER
1 - 3
DOR
73%
16%
11%
|
36 | 27 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
MER
2 - 2
HAR
61%
19%
20%
|
36 | 30 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
MER
2 - 1
FOL
32%
23%
45%
|
35 | 38 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Oct. 2022 |
NOR
0 - 2
MER
51%
22%
27%
|
34 | 33 | 1 | +1 |