EFL Cup 1/64
Global 1-2
Bury vs Notts County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.4%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.7%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
21.3%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bury
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 1999 |
BCF
2 - 1
GIL
40%
29%
32%
|
56 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1999 |
BCF
1 - 0
POR
43%
27%
31%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | +2 |
| 01 May. 1999 |
WBA
1 - 0
BCF
68%
20%
13%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1999 |
BCF
2 - 1
BOL
20%
25%
55%
|
54 | 72 | 18 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1999 |
GRI
0 - 0
BCF
57%
25%
17%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 1999 |
NOT
0 - 0
LUT
51%
25%
24%
|
54 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1999 |
NOT
0 - 1
GIL
43%
27%
30%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1999 |
NOT
1 - 1
MAC
60%
23%
17%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1999 |
PNE
1 - 1
NOT
66%
21%
14%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1999 |
NOT
1 - 0
WYC
50%
25%
25%
|
53 | 54 | 1 | +1 |