Bury vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.9%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
22%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22%
27.1%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bury
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 May. 1929 |
BCF
3 - 4
BOL
48%
23%
30%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1929 |
BIR
3 - 2
BCF
51%
23%
26%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Apr. 1929 |
BCF
1 - 2
MAC
50%
22%
28%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1929 |
HUR
0 - 2
BCF
64%
20%
16%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 1929 |
BCF
1 - 2
EVE
49%
22%
29%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 1929 |
DER
1 - 2
NEW
66%
19%
16%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1929 |
WHU
2 - 2
DER
57%
21%
23%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1929 |
DER
2 - 5
LIV
64%
19%
17%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1929 |
LEE
1 - 1
DER
50%
23%
28%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1929 |
DER
3 - 0
EVE
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |