Bury vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.3%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
29.9%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.5%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.6%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bury
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 1903 |
NEW
1 - 0
BCF
40%
26%
34%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1903 |
BCF
1 - 1
BBU
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1903 |
BCF
4 - 0
SHW
58%
22%
20%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 1903 |
BCF
3 - 1
MID
61%
22%
17%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1903 |
BOL
1 - 0
BCF
30%
27%
43%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 1903 |
MID
3 - 1
DER
33%
26%
41%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1903 |
DER
1 - 0
SHW
59%
22%
19%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1903 |
NEW
2 - 1
DER
37%
26%
37%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1903 |
SHE
3 - 2
DER
39%
24%
37%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1903 |
DER
0 - 1
EVE
59%
22%
19%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |