Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.4%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.4%
4-0
6.9%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.4%
3-0
11.2%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.4%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
11%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
14.9%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
14.9%
7.7%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.8%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
HUR
2 - 0
BUR
40%
26%
34%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2012 |
MID
3 - 2
BUR
42%
27%
31%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2012 |
BUR
2 - 0
BOL
30%
26%
44%
|
70 | 81 | 11 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2012 |
POR
1 - 3
BUR
22%
23%
55%
|
70 | 56 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2012 |
ROC
3 - 1
BUR
20%
22%
58%
|
70 | 52 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Plymouth Argyle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
OXF
2 - 1
PLY
55%
25%
20%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2012 |
DAG
0 - 0
PLY
48%
25%
27%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2012 |
PLY
0 - 2
ALD
37%
28%
36%
|
55 | 59 | 4 | -2 |
| 14 Aug. 2012 |
PLY
3 - 0
OPA
22%
25%
53%
|
52 | 68 | 16 | +3 |
| 04 Aug. 2012 |
PLY
0 - 5
BIR
12%
20%
68%
|
52 | 80 | 28 | 0 |