Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.6%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.5%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
16.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2010 |
COV
1 - 0
BUR
28%
26%
46%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2010 |
BUR
3 - 2
WAT
60%
22%
18%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2010 |
BUR
1 - 1
DON
62%
22%
17%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2010 |
NOR
2 - 2
BUR
41%
26%
34%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2010 |
QPR
1 - 1
BUR
38%
26%
36%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2010 |
DER
3 - 2
SCU
59%
22%
19%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2010 |
LEI
2 - 0
DER
51%
26%
23%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2010 |
IPS
0 - 2
DER
51%
26%
23%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | +1 |
| 06 Nov. 2010 |
DER
2 - 0
OPA
33%
27%
40%
|
68 | 81 | 13 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2010 |
DER
4 - 1
WAT
48%
25%
28%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | +1 |