Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.8%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.8%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
22.7%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 2008 |
BAR
3 - 2
BUR
40%
28%
32%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2008 |
BUR
0 - 0
DON
61%
23%
16%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2008 |
QPR
1 - 2
BUR
49%
26%
25%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 Nov. 2008 |
CHL
1 - 1
BUR
82%
13%
5%
|
73 | 96 | 23 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2008 |
WOL
2 - 0
BUR
57%
24%
20%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov. 2008 |
DER
2 - 2
PNE
49%
25%
26%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2008 |
IPS
2 - 0
DER
55%
24%
21%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | -1 |
| 15 Nov. 2008 |
DER
3 - 0
SHW
52%
24%
23%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2008 |
DER
2 - 1
LEE
52%
24%
24%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2008 |
REA
3 - 0
DER
70%
19%
11%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | 0 |