Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.8%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.4%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.8%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
29.8%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 1952 |
TOT
2 - 1
BUR
73%
16%
11%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1952 |
BUR
1 - 1
SHW
48%
24%
28%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1952 |
MAC
0 - 0
BUR
49%
25%
26%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1952 |
CAR
0 - 0
BUR
44%
25%
31%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1952 |
BUR
2 - 1
MAC
50%
25%
25%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 1952 |
DER
2 - 0
ARS
49%
23%
29%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1952 |
CHA
3 - 1
DER
63%
19%
19%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1952 |
DER
2 - 3
WOL
51%
21%
27%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1952 |
DER
2 - 3
MUD
42%
23%
35%
|
78 | 87 | 9 | -1 |
| 06 Sep. 1952 |
SUN
2 - 1
DER
60%
20%
20%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |