Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.7%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.9%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.7%
1-0
9%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
34.9%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.9%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 1951 |
WOL
0 - 1
BUR
76%
15%
9%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1951 |
CHL
0 - 2
BUR
54%
24%
22%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1951 |
BUR
1 - 2
MUD
34%
27%
39%
|
80 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 1951 |
BUR
2 - 1
CHL
47%
26%
27%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1951 |
ASV
3 - 2
BUR
58%
23%
19%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 1951 |
DER
6 - 0
MID
63%
19%
18%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1951 |
DER
2 - 4
MUD
56%
21%
23%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1951 |
HUR
2 - 0
DER
38%
24%
38%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 1951 |
MUD
2 - 0
DER
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 1951 |
DER
4 - 2
ARS
59%
20%
21%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | +1 |