Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.8%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.7%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.9%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
37.9%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1949 |
BUR
2 - 1
STO
41%
26%
34%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1949 |
BIR
0 - 1
BUR
44%
27%
28%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1949 |
SUN
2 - 1
BUR
54%
24%
22%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1949 |
BUR
2 - 1
BOL
47%
26%
28%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1949 |
BUR
2 - 2
SUN
40%
25%
35%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1949 |
BOL
0 - 0
DER
44%
23%
33%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1949 |
DER
2 - 3
STO
67%
18%
15%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1949 |
DER
3 - 2
ASV
64%
19%
17%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1949 |
CHL
1 - 2
DER
47%
22%
31%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 1949 |
ASV
1 - 1
DER
53%
21%
26%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |