Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.5%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.3%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
9%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.3%
27.2%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1930 |
MID
3 - 1
BUR
54%
21%
25%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1930 |
EVE
3 - 0
BUR
54%
20%
26%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | -1 |
| 12 Apr. 1930 |
BUR
4 - 1
LIV
54%
21%
25%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 1930 |
WHU
1 - 0
BUR
58%
19%
22%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Apr. 1930 |
BUR
1 - 3
HUR
54%
21%
25%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1930 |
DER
3 - 1
NEW
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 1930 |
SHW
6 - 3
DER
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1930 |
DER
4 - 1
SHW
58%
20%
22%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1930 |
GRI
2 - 1
DER
44%
23%
33%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1930 |
DER
2 - 2
LEI
65%
19%
17%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |