Burnley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.6%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.4%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.9%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
16.2%
11.1%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 1926 |
MUD
2 - 1
BUR
44%
24%
32%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1926 |
BUR
4 - 3
BOL
55%
22%
24%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
| 06 Sep. 1926 |
BUR
3 - 3
NEW
58%
22%
20%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1926 |
ASV
1 - 1
BUR
55%
21%
24%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1926 |
NEW
1 - 5
BUR
60%
20%
20%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 1926 |
DER
1 - 1
NEW
46%
26%
28%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1926 |
SHE
1 - 0
DER
75%
15%
10%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1926 |
LEE
1 - 0
DER
56%
23%
22%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | -1 |
| 04 Sep. 1926 |
DER
2 - 1
LIV
45%
26%
29%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 1926 |
ARS
2 - 1
DER
68%
19%
14%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |