Burnley vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.2%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.3%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
28%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1925 |
ARS
5 - 0
BUR
50%
25%
25%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1925 |
NOT
2 - 0
BUR
48%
26%
26%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1925 |
BUR
1 - 0
MAC
51%
23%
26%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1925 |
BUR
1 - 1
NOT
63%
21%
16%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1925 |
SHE
4 - 0
BUR
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1925 |
ASV
1 - 0
PNE
64%
21%
16%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1925 |
MAC
1 - 0
ASV
52%
23%
25%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 1925 |
CAR
2 - 1
ASV
51%
23%
26%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1925 |
ASV
2 - 1
MAC
52%
23%
26%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1925 |
ASV
1 - 4
SUN
45%
24%
31%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |