Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.9%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.1%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.9%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.9%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
41.5%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.3%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-25%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
17
2º
10º
9º
24
1º
6º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
1% | 31% |
|
Next round
|
27.5% | 63.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
71.5% | 5.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brisbane Roar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
BRI
2 - 2
WUF
47%
25%
28%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
PER
3 - 2
BRI
40%
25%
35%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
BRI
5 - 1
MCI
24%
25%
51%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | +1 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
BRI
1 - 1
WPH
32%
26%
42%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
CCM
2 - 0
BRI
71%
17%
12%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
MEL
0 - 1
CCM
35%
25%
40%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2024 |
MEL
2 - 1
WUF
63%
21%
16%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
50%
24%
26%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
MEL
0 - 1
MFC
54%
23%
23%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 1
MEL
27%
25%
48%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |