UEFA Intertoto Cup Quarter-finals
Global 1-3
Brescia vs Villarreal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.2%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.2%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
25.9%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.9%
29.8%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brescia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2003 |
VIL
2 - 0
BRE
56%
24%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2003 |
BRI
1 - 1
BRE
37%
27%
36%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2003 |
BRE
2 - 1
BRI
68%
20%
12%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2003 |
BRE
2 - 2
MOD
62%
23%
15%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2003 |
LAZ
3 - 1
BRE
69%
19%
12%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Villarreal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2003 |
VIL
2 - 0
BRE
56%
24%
20%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2003 |
VIL
1 - 4
BET
44%
27%
30%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 2003 |
ESP
2 - 2
VIL
53%
24%
23%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2003 |
VIL
1 - 1
ATH
35%
25%
40%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2003 |
ATM
3 - 2
VIL
54%
24%
22%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |