Brentford vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.4%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
32.3%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.9%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brentford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2002 |
BRE
1 - 0
MAN
60%
22%
18%
|
61 | 52 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2002 |
SWI
2 - 1
BRE
31%
26%
44%
|
62 | 53 | 9 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2002 |
QPR
1 - 1
BRE
38%
26%
36%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2002 |
BRE
2 - 1
CHE
63%
22%
15%
|
61 | 54 | 7 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 2002 |
YOR
1 - 2
BRE
31%
26%
44%
|
61 | 54 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 2003 |
WOL
1 - 1
DER
56%
25%
20%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2002 |
REA
2 - 1
DER
49%
26%
25%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2002 |
DER
1 - 3
GRI
68%
20%
12%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2002 |
COV
3 - 0
DER
48%
26%
26%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | -1 |
| 14 Dec. 2002 |
DER
1 - 0
BHA
67%
20%
13%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |