Brentford vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.7%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.1%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
29.9%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.8%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.5%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brentford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 1946 |
ASV
5 - 2
BRE
60%
20%
20%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1946 |
BRE
0 - 3
SUN
54%
22%
24%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 1946 |
BRE
2 - 1
BPO
55%
22%
23%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 14 Sep. 1946 |
WOL
1 - 2
BRE
76%
14%
10%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1946 |
BRE
2 - 0
HUR
57%
21%
23%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 1946 |
DER
1 - 2
BPO
62%
19%
19%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1946 |
ARS
0 - 1
DER
58%
21%
22%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1946 |
STO
3 - 2
DER
55%
21%
25%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1946 |
HUR
5 - 2
DER
39%
25%
36%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | -1 |
| 07 Sep. 1946 |
DER
1 - 2
ASV
66%
18%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |