Brentford vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.1%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.5%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.2%
23.7%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.9%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Brentford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 1938 |
GRI
0 - 0
BRE
55%
22%
24%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1938 |
BRE
2 - 3
SUN
56%
21%
24%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1938 |
BPO
4 - 1
BRE
49%
24%
28%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | -1 |
| 17 Sep. 1938 |
ASV
5 - 0
BRE
52%
22%
25%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1938 |
BRE
0 - 1
WOL
59%
20%
21%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 1938 |
DER
2 - 1
BPO
68%
17%
15%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1938 |
DER
5 - 0
STO
68%
17%
15%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1938 |
GRI
1 - 1
DER
54%
21%
25%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1938 |
ARS
1 - 2
DER
62%
19%
18%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 1938 |
DER
1 - 0
SUN
58%
20%
23%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |