Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 3-3
Botafogo vs Santa Cruz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86.8%
Win probability
2.87
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.2%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.4%
6-0
2.9%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
3.4%
5-0
6%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
7.3%
4-0
10.5%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
13.3%
3-0
14.6%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
19.6%
2-0
15.3%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
6.5%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
18.6%
9.8%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
4.5%
2-2
1.4%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
9.8%
3.3%
Win probability
0.43
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
2.8%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Botafogo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2010 |
BOA
1 - 4
BOT
14%
19%
67%
|
81 | 56 | 25 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2010 |
VOL
0 - 1
BOT
12%
20%
68%
|
81 | 51 | 30 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2010 |
BOT
2 - 2
FLA
43%
24%
33%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2010 |
SAN
0 - 1
BOT
12%
19%
69%
|
81 | 47 | 34 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2010 |
BOT
2 - 0
OLA
86%
11%
4%
|
81 | 53 | 28 | 0 |
Matches
Santa Cruz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2010 |
SPO
2 - 0
SAN
81%
14%
5%
|
49 | 77 | 28 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2010 |
SAN
3 - 2
POR
60%
21%
19%
|
48 | 43 | 5 | +1 |
| 21 Mar. 2010 |
SAN
4 - 2
NAU
16%
21%
63%
|
47 | 71 | 24 | +1 |
| 17 Mar. 2010 |
SAN
0 - 1
BOT
12%
19%
69%
|
47 | 81 | 34 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2010 |
VCR
1 - 4
SAN
29%
24%
47%
|
46 | 34 | 12 | +1 |