Copa do Brasil Last 16
Global 5-5
Botafogo vs Ceará analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.3%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.6%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.3%
17.3%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Botafogo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2014 |
BOT
1 - 0
CHA
63%
23%
14%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2014 |
FFL
1 - 0
BOT
32%
27%
41%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2014 |
BOT
1 - 1
COM
82%
14%
4%
|
80 | 54 | 26 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2014 |
BOT
2 - 0
FLU
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2014 |
VOT
1 - 1
BOT
11%
19%
70%
|
80 | 47 | 33 | 0 |
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2014 |
POR
1 - 1
CEA
42%
27%
32%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2014 |
CEA
1 - 2
ABC
74%
17%
9%
|
74 | 60 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2014 |
VAS
2 - 0
CEA
58%
23%
19%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2014 |
CEA
3 - 1
SCI
40%
26%
34%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2014 |
ATL
0 - 2
CEA
36%
27%
36%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | +1 |