B. Dortmund vs SC Freiburg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.2%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.9%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.1%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.3%
14.5%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
63
4º
9º
5º
42
5º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
90 | 90 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
73 | 73 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
72 | 72 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
63 | 63 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 46 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 42 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
|
10º
|
42 | 42 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
39 | 39 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
37 | 37 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
35 | 35 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
34 | 34 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
33 | 33 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
17º
|
27 | 27 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 17 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
100% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
HEI
0 - 0
BVB
10%
17%
73%
|
94 | 81 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
BVB
3 - 1
RTV
78%
14%
8%
|
93 | 81 | 12 | +1 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
KOL
0 - 4
BVB
11%
18%
70%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
DAR
0 - 3
BVB
9%
17%
74%
|
93 | 78 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2024 |
BVB
3 - 3
SDL
85%
11%
4%
|
93 | 77 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
SC Freiburg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
SCF
1 - 3
STU
44%
24%
32%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
BRE
3 - 1
SCF
25%
24%
51%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
SCF
3 - 2
HOF
50%
23%
27%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
SCF
0 - 0
FCU
51%
24%
25%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
EIN
2 - 5
SCF
41%
25%
34%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |