Bologna vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.2%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.7%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.3%
16.5%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bologna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct. 1949 |
ROM
3 - 1
BOL
45%
24%
31%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1949 |
PAL
2 - 1
BOL
41%
27%
33%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1949 |
BOL
3 - 1
PRO
66%
18%
16%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1949 |
BAR
3 - 2
BOL
37%
28%
35%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1949 |
BOL
2 - 6
ATL
66%
20%
14%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct. 1949 |
NOV
5 - 2
ATL
51%
24%
25%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1949 |
PRO
1 - 0
NOV
53%
22%
25%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 1949 |
NOV
5 - 0
ASL
48%
24%
29%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 1949 |
TOR
5 - 1
NOV
88%
8%
4%
|
72 | 92 | 20 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1949 |
NOV
1 - 2
TRI
46%
24%
31%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |