Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 2-3
Bolívar vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.6%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.4%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.5%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.1%
37.3%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.8%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.9%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2015 |
BOL
2 - 3
SBW
67%
19%
14%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2015 |
DEF
3 - 0
BOL
52%
25%
23%
|
70 | 76 | 6 | -1 |
| 08 Aug. 2015 |
OPE
1 - 0
BOL
44%
27%
30%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2015 |
PET
1 - 1
BOL
44%
27%
29%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2015 |
BOL
1 - 0
SAN
62%
20%
17%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug. 2015 |
DEF
3 - 0
BOL
52%
25%
23%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2015 |
JUN
0 - 0
DEF
24%
25%
51%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2015 |
DEF
2 - 0
MWA
42%
27%
31%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2015 |
ATE
1 - 2
DEF
31%
26%
43%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | +1 |
| 16 May. 2015 |
DEF
1 - 1
DAN
48%
27%
26%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | -1 |