Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 1-2
Bolívar vs Boca Juniors analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.5%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.5%
34%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.1%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 2
OPE
58%
21%
21%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
2 - 0
RPO
56%
21%
23%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2004 |
BOL
2 - 1
LIG
49%
24%
27%
|
70 | 78 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Dec. 2004 |
BLO
2 - 0
BOL
42%
26%
32%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | -1 |
| 28 Nov. 2004 |
BOL
0 - 1
SAN
64%
19%
17%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Dec. 2004 |
QUI
0 - 1
BOC
28%
28%
45%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2004 |
SCI
0 - 0
BOC
46%
27%
27%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 3
NOB
57%
23%
20%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 Nov. 2004 |
BOC
4 - 2
SCI
50%
26%
25%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | +1 |
| 21 Nov. 2004 |
ARS
1 - 0
BOC
30%
28%
42%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | -1 |