EFL Cup Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Birmingham City vs Norwich City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.6%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.4%
1-0
9%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.3%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.1%
33.3%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.7%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 1996 |
IPS
2 - 0
BIR
59%
22%
19%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 1996 |
WOL
2 - 1
BIR
52%
24%
24%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 14 Jan. 1996 |
BIR
3 - 4
CHA
57%
24%
19%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1996 |
NOR
1 - 1
BIR
54%
24%
22%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 1996 |
BIR
1 - 1
WOL
54%
23%
23%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Norwich City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 1996 |
NOR
0 - 1
LUT
68%
21%
12%
|
71 | 56 | 15 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1996 |
SUN
0 - 1
NOR
42%
26%
32%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1996 |
NOR
1 - 1
BIR
54%
24%
22%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 1996 |
NOR
1 - 2
BRE
73%
17%
10%
|
72 | 55 | 17 | -1 |
| 01 Jan. 1996 |
DER
2 - 1
NOR
51%
24%
25%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |