Birmingham City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.9%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.2%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
6%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.4%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
50.8%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
5%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.5%
0-3
5%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+13%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Dec. 1949 |
BIR
1 - 0
STO
35%
27%
38%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1949 |
CHL
3 - 0
BIR
72%
16%
11%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 1949 |
ASV
1 - 1
BIR
75%
16%
10%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1949 |
BIR
2 - 0
CHA
34%
27%
39%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | +1 |
| 26 Nov. 1949 |
MAC
4 - 0
BIR
65%
20%
15%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Dec. 1949 |
DER
2 - 2
CHL
70%
16%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1949 |
MUD
0 - 1
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1949 |
CHA
1 - 3
DER
49%
22%
28%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1949 |
DER
7 - 0
MAC
72%
16%
12%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 1949 |
FUL
0 - 0
DER
33%
24%
43%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |