Birmingham City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.8%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.8%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
38.1%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.1%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+21%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 1948 |
BPO
1 - 0
BIR
64%
20%
16%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1948 |
BIR
0 - 1
LIV
47%
25%
29%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 1948 |
BOL
0 - 0
BIR
56%
23%
21%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1948 |
CHA
1 - 1
BIR
63%
21%
17%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1948 |
BIR
2 - 1
STO
48%
25%
27%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 1948 |
DER
2 - 1
CHL
71%
17%
13%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1948 |
EVE
0 - 1
DER
47%
22%
31%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1948 |
DER
1 - 0
PNE
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1948 |
LIV
0 - 0
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1948 |
DER
1 - 0
BOL
70%
17%
13%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | +1 |