Birmingham City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.3%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.1%
2-0
7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.3%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.8%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
29.3%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
BPO
0 - 1
BIR
53%
21%
26%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
BIR
4 - 0
EVE
46%
24%
30%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | +1 |
| 31 Dec. 1932 |
ARS
3 - 0
BIR
77%
14%
9%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1932 |
BIR
1 - 2
NEW
48%
23%
29%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1932 |
NEW
2 - 1
BIR
63%
19%
18%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
DER
2 - 2
WBA
65%
18%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
SHW
0 - 0
DER
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1932 |
DER
5 - 1
LEE
68%
18%
15%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 27 Dec. 1932 |
BPO
4 - 1
DER
44%
22%
34%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1932 |
DER
1 - 1
BPO
70%
16%
15%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |