Birmingham City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.1%
Win probability
2.81
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.3%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.3%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.1%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.2%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.1%
14.1%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.1%
9.8%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+29%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 1906 |
BIR
2 - 0
SUN
63%
19%
19%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1906 |
BBU
1 - 0
BIR
57%
21%
22%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 1906 |
BIR
2 - 1
STO
77%
14%
10%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | +1 |
| 27 Oct. 1906 |
MUD
2 - 1
BIR
66%
19%
16%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 1906 |
BIR
4 - 2
BOL
58%
20%
23%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 1906 |
DER
0 - 1
ASV
39%
23%
38%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1906 |
SUN
0 - 2
DER
75%
15%
10%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1906 |
DER
0 - 0
NEW
36%
26%
39%
|
77 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1906 |
BBU
5 - 1
DER
64%
19%
17%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1906 |
DER
3 - 0
PNE
52%
24%
24%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |