Benfica vs Sporting Braga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.7%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.1%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.3%
23%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
30.4%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
1º
15º
2º
40
4º
9º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 77 |
1º
|
66.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
47 | 73 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
43 | 67 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
43.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 54 |
5º
|
34.5% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 54 |
6º
|
35.5% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 45 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 43 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 41 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 38 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 34 |
14º
|
24.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
17º
|
31% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 25 |
18º
|
44.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
22.5% | 5.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
40% | 14.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
24.5% | 32% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
13% | 43.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 4.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
SCP
1 - 0
SLB
52%
23%
25%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2024 |
SLB
3 - 0
EST
75%
16%
9%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 2
SLB
21%
23%
56%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | -1 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
AVE
1 - 1
SLB
15%
21%
64%
|
89 | 63 | 26 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2024 |
SLB
0 - 0
BOL
42%
25%
34%
|
89 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Sporting Braga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
SPB
1 - 2
CAS
69%
19%
12%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 2
SPB
19%
22%
59%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2024 |
SPB
3 - 3
FAM
66%
20%
14%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2024 |
ROM
3 - 0
SPB
64%
20%
16%
|
89 | 94 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2024 |
SPB
2 - 2
EST
72%
18%
10%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | 0 |