Intercontinental Final
Global 2-7
Benfica vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86.7%
Win probability
3.75
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
0.9%
9-1
0.4%
10-2
0.1%
+8
1.3%
7-0
2%
8-1
0.8%
9-2
0.2%
10-3
<0%
+7
3%
6-0
3.7%
7-1
1.8%
8-2
0.4%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.9%
5-0
5.8%
6-1
3.3%
7-2
0.8%
8-3
0.1%
9-4
<0%
+5
10.1%
4-0
7.8%
5-1
5.3%
6-2
1.5%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.9%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
7.1%
5-2
2.4%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
18.3%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.3%
1-0
3.5%
2-1
6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
14.2%
8.2%
Draw
0-0
0.9%
1-1
3.2%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
8.2%
4.9%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
0.9%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.5%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 1961 |
VST
4 - 1
SLB
18%
20%
62%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1961 |
SLB
3 - 2
FCB
73%
14%
12%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1961 |
BEL
0 - 4
SLB
35%
23%
42%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1961 |
SLB
8 - 0
SPC
84%
10%
6%
|
88 | 60 | 28 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1961 |
SLB
3 - 1
VST
86%
9%
5%
|
87 | 61 | 26 | +1 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 1961 |
PAL
1 - 1
PEÑ
70%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1961 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PAL
71%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1961 |
OLI
1 - 2
PEÑ
57%
20%
23%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 May. 1961 |
PEÑ
3 - 1
OLI
63%
18%
18%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1961 |
UNI
2 - 0
PEÑ
51%
22%
27%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | -1 |