Benfica vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
87.5%
Win probability
2.99
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.6%
6-0
3.2%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.8%
5-0
6.4%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
7.9%
4-0
10.6%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
13.9%
3-0
14.2%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
<0%
+3
19.8%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
6.5%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.7%
9.2%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
4.3%
2-2
1.5%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
9.2%
3.3%
Win probability
0.45
Expected goals
0-1
1.5%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
2.7%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 1986 |
SAL
1 - 1
SLB
17%
24%
59%
|
88 | 63 | 25 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1986 |
POR
0 - 3
SLB
20%
25%
55%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 1986 |
SLB
2 - 1
FCP
63%
22%
15%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 1986 |
SLB
2 - 0
SPC
91%
7%
3%
|
88 | 60 | 28 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1986 |
VST
0 - 1
SLB
18%
25%
57%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 1986 |
PEN
2 - 0
SPC
41%
30%
30%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1986 |
VST
4 - 0
PEN
61%
24%
15%
|
59 | 64 | 5 | -1 |
| 12 Feb. 1986 |
UNM
0 - 1
PEN
64%
19%
17%
|
58 | 61 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Feb. 1986 |
PEN
1 - 1
VIT
33%
31%
36%
|
58 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1986 |
MAR
1 - 0
PEN
50%
29%
22%
|
58 | 56 | 2 | 0 |