Benfica vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.5%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.9%
11.5%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2015 |
RIO
2 - 1
SLB
18%
24%
58%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2015 |
SLB
2 - 0
SPB
56%
23%
21%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 2015 |
ARO
1 - 3
SLB
15%
22%
63%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2015 |
SLB
6 - 0
EST
74%
17%
9%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2015 |
MOR
1 - 3
SLB
17%
24%
59%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2015 |
NAC
1 - 1
FCP
20%
23%
58%
|
75 | 88 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2015 |
ACA
2 - 1
NAC
26%
27%
47%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | -2 |
| 09 Mar. 2015 |
RIO
1 - 1
NAC
35%
27%
38%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2015 |
NAC
2 - 2
SCP
24%
23%
53%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Mar. 2015 |
NAC
3 - 0
VST
51%
25%
24%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |