Cup Winners Cup Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Benfica vs Fortuna Düsseldorf analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
11.3%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 1981 |
SLB
1 - 0
FCP
63%
21%
16%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1981 |
ACA
0 - 2
SLB
15%
26%
60%
|
88 | 57 | 31 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1981 |
F95
2 - 2
SLB
46%
25%
28%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1981 |
SLB
4 - 1
AMO
93%
5%
2%
|
88 | 57 | 31 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1981 |
POR
1 - 5
SLB
21%
28%
51%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 1981 |
F95
3 - 1
ARB
70%
17%
13%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 1981 |
S04
0 - 4
F95
41%
25%
34%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1981 |
F95
2 - 2
SLB
46%
25%
28%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1981 |
HER
2 - 1
F95
54%
23%
23%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1981 |
F95
1 - 2
KSC
67%
18%
15%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |