Taça de Portugal Quarter-finals
Global 5-4
Benfica vs Porto analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.7%
Win probability
2.55
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
10.4%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
3.7%
5-3
1.1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.1%
1-0
3.5%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
5.7%
4-3
2.1%
5-4
0.5%
6-5
0.1%
+1
19.7%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
1.4%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
3.3%
4-4
0.9%
5-5
0.2%
6-6
<0%
0
18.6%
25.7%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
1.4%
4-5
0.3%
5-6
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 1941 |
FCP
4 - 3
SLB
69%
15%
16%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1941 |
SLB
8 - 0
SPC
85%
9%
6%
|
83 | 61 | 22 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1941 |
SPC
0 - 5
SLB
28%
21%
51%
|
83 | 62 | 21 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1941 |
SLB
3 - 0
ACA
83%
10%
7%
|
83 | 65 | 18 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1941 |
SLB
3 - 2
UNI
88%
8%
5%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | +1 |
Matches
Porto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 1941 |
FCP
4 - 3
SLB
69%
15%
16%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1941 |
OLH
2 - 5
FCP
29%
21%
50%
|
84 | 67 | 17 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1941 |
FCP
3 - 1
OLH
86%
9%
5%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1941 |
UNI
0 - 0
FCP
14%
16%
70%
|
84 | 65 | 19 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1941 |
FCP
7 - 1
BOA
93%
5%
2%
|
84 | 60 | 24 | 0 |