Taça de Portugal Semi-finals
Global 5-4
Benfica vs Estoril analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.6%
Win probability
2.69
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.4%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.6%
4-0
7.8%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.9%
3-0
11.6%
4-1
5%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.6%
2-0
13%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.2%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.7%
13%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
13%
6.4%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
2%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.9%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2017 |
SLB
1 - 1
FCP
59%
22%
19%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2017 |
PAÇ
0 - 0
SLB
18%
23%
59%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | -1 |
| 13 Mar. 2017 |
SLB
4 - 0
BEL
83%
12%
5%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2017 |
BVB
4 - 0
SLB
63%
21%
17%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2017 |
FEI
0 - 1
SLB
12%
21%
67%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Estoril
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2017 |
TON
0 - 2
EST
26%
27%
47%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2017 |
EST
0 - 0
BOA
49%
27%
24%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2017 |
VIT
3 - 3
EST
56%
25%
20%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2017 |
EST
0 - 2
RIO
47%
27%
27%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2017 |
EST
1 - 2
SLB
18%
24%
58%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | -1 |