Benfica vs Casa Pia AC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.9%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.6%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.5%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.9%
9.1%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
2º
15º
2º
6
11º
18º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 75 |
1º
|
59% | |
|
|
5º
|
10 | 69 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 69 |
3º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 68 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
3º
|
12 | 61 |
5º
|
29.5% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 52 |
6º
|
24.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 50 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 44 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 40 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 39 |
13º
|
9% | |
|
|
11º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
15.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 35 |
15º
|
5.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
16º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 28 |
17º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
18º
|
39.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
13% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
21.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
28% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
22.5% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
15% | 80% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 10% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 9.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
FAM
2 - 0
SLB
23%
24%
53%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
SLB
0 - 1
FUL
49%
23%
28%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
5 - 0
FEY
45%
23%
32%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
1 - 1
BRE
43%
23%
33%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
3 - 1
ALM
73%
16%
11%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Casa Pia AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 1
BOA
38%
27%
36%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 2
MAF
55%
24%
21%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | +1 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
FAM
2 - 0
CAS
54%
23%
23%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2024 |
CAS
4 - 1
1DE
79%
16%
5%
|
74 | 38 | 36 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 0
CAL
76%
17%
7%
|
74 | 45 | 29 | 0 |