Benfica vs Casa Pia AC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.9%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.6%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.5%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.9%
9.1%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
+18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
1º
15º
2º
30
6º
18º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 77 |
1º
|
66.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
47 | 73 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
43 | 67 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
43.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 54 |
5º
|
34.5% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 54 |
6º
|
35.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 45 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 43 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 41 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 38 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 34 |
14º
|
24.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
17º
|
31% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 25 |
18º
|
44.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
22.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
40% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
24.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
13% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 99.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
FAM
2 - 0
SLB
23%
24%
53%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
SLB
0 - 1
FUL
49%
23%
28%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
5 - 0
FEY
45%
23%
32%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
1 - 1
BRE
43%
23%
33%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
SLB
3 - 1
ALM
73%
16%
11%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Casa Pia AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 1
BOA
38%
27%
36%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 2
MAF
55%
24%
21%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
FAM
2 - 0
CAS
54%
23%
23%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2024 |
CAS
4 - 1
1DE
79%
16%
5%
|
75 | 40 | 35 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
CAS
0 - 0
CAL
76%
17%
7%
|
75 | 46 | 29 | 0 |