Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 7-2
Benfica vs AGF Aarhus analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82%
Win probability
3.23
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.2%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.7%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
1.1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.8%
5-0
4.7%
6-1
2.3%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
7.5%
4-0
7.3%
5-1
4.2%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
12.7%
3-0
9%
4-1
6.6%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.4%
11%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
4.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
11%
7%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
4.9%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 1961 |
LGC
1 - 2
SLB
17%
21%
63%
|
88 | 63 | 25 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1961 |
SLB
7 - 2
ATL
80%
12%
8%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 1961 |
LEX
0 - 3
SLB
15%
18%
67%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 1961 |
SLB
8 - 1
SAL
78%
13%
9%
|
88 | 55 | 33 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 1961 |
VIT
2 - 1
SLB
25%
22%
53%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
AGF Aarhus
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 1960 |
FFK
0 - 1
AGF
79%
12%
9%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1960 |
AGF
3 - 0
FFK
38%
22%
40%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | +1 |
| 05 Oct. 1960 |
WAR
1 - 0
AGF
66%
17%
17%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1960 |
AGF
3 - 0
WAR
50%
21%
28%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | +1 |
| 04 Dec. 1957 |
AGF
2 - 0
SEV
39%
23%
39%
|
73 | 85 | 12 | +1 |