BCV Glesch-Paffendorf vs Hennef 05 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
10.4%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.4%
1-0
2.7%
2-1
3.1%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
7.2%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.2%
74.3%
Win probability
2.62
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.3%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
8%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
21%
0-3
9%
1-4
5.2%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
15.6%
0-4
5.9%
1-5
2.7%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
9.2%
0-5
3.1%
1-6
1.2%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
4.5%
0-6
1.3%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1.9%
0-7
0.5%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.7%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-63%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
10º
16º
16º
32
7º
12º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 69 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 64 |
2º
|
83.5% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 62 |
3º
|
60% | |
|
4º
|
55 | 61 |
4º
|
62% | |
|
5º
|
52 | 58 |
5º
|
84% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 45 |
6º
|
97% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 42 |
7º
|
78.5% | |
|
8º
|
34 | 38 |
8º
|
39% | |
|
|
10º
|
32 | 38 |
9º
|
36% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 37 |
10º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
32 | 36 |
11º
|
36.5% | |
|
12º
|
31 | 35 |
12º
|
47.5% | |
|
13º
|
23 | 27 |
13º
|
61.5% | |
|
14º
|
23 | 27 |
14º
|
63% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 21 |
15º
|
74% | |
|
|
16º
|
0 | 14 |
16º
|
76% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
10% | 64% |
|
Relegation
|
90% | 36% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
BCV Glesch-Paffendorf
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
BSC
2 - 0
BGP
83%
12%
6%
|
19 | 38 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
BGP
0 - 3
BFR
25%
21%
54%
|
20 | 28 | 8 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
FVE
3 - 1
BGP
30%
23%
48%
|
22 | 18 | 4 | -2 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
USC
2 - 1
BGP
62%
18%
20%
|
22 | 27 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
BGP
2 - 4
SPF
19%
21%
60%
|
23 | 36 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Hennef 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
H05
2 - 2
USC
67%
17%
16%
|
36 | 26 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
SPF
3 - 1
H05
37%
24%
39%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | -2 |
| 20 Oct. 2023 |
H05
0 - 1
BER
43%
25%
32%
|
40 | 41 | 1 | -2 |
| 15 Oct. 2023 |
SIE
1 - 3
H05
18%
19%
63%
|
38 | 27 | 11 | +2 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
H05
0 - 3
VFL
37%
25%
38%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | -1 |