Baumgarten vs Marz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.3%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.4%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.2%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
5%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
6.9%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.3%
27.4%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Baumgarten
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2012 |
JEN
0 - 1
BAU
43%
23%
34%
|
18 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2012 |
BAU
1 - 2
NEU
34%
22%
43%
|
19 | 24 | 5 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2012 |
DRA
3 - 1
BAU
62%
19%
19%
|
19 | 21 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2012 |
BAU
0 - 3
PUR
82%
11%
7%
|
20 | 15 | 5 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
GUS
1 - 1
BAU
19%
23%
59%
|
21 | 14 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Marz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2012 |
MAR
0 - 1
KLI
68%
18%
14%
|
21 | 17 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2012 |
PAR
0 - 7
MAR
34%
24%
42%
|
20 | 17 | 3 | +1 |
| 08 Sep. 2012 |
JEN
0 - 2
MAR
38%
23%
40%
|
19 | 17 | 2 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2012 |
MAR
2 - 5
NEU
36%
23%
41%
|
20 | 23 | 3 | -1 |
| 24 Aug. 2012 |
DRA
6 - 3
MAR
55%
21%
24%
|
21 | 22 | 1 | -1 |