Basel vs Winterthur analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
9%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
23.4%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
1º
10º
2º
14
6º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
38 | 56 |
1º
|
45% | |
|
|
2º
|
37 | 55 |
2º
|
25% | |
|
3º
|
36 | 54 |
3º
|
16.5% | |
|
4º
|
33 | 48 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
5º
|
16.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 47 |
7º
|
11.5% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 47 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 42 |
9º
|
31.5% | |
|
10º
|
21 | 33 |
10º
|
39.5% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 33 |
11º
|
43.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
14 | 26 |
12º
|
80% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
95.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
4.5% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
YOB
3 - 2
BAS
41%
24%
35%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 6
BAS
27%
23%
50%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 1
STG
37%
25%
39%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 0
YOB
39%
25%
36%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 0
BAS
34%
25%
41%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
STG
2 - 2
WIN
62%
20%
18%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 6
BAS
27%
23%
50%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
LAU
2 - 0
WIN
42%
25%
33%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2024 |
WIN
2 - 2
WIL
59%
21%
20%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 0
GCZ
42%
26%
32%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |