Basel vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.4%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.9%
3-0
10.4%
4-1
5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.5%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.7%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.3%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.3%
8.3%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.1%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
FCA
2 - 2
BAS
29%
24%
48%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
UGS
1 - 4
BAS
4%
13%
83%
|
85 | 33 | 52 | -1 |
| 15 Oct. 2003 |
BAS
1 - 2
MAL
87%
10%
4%
|
85 | 68 | 17 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
BAS
4 - 0
WIL
79%
14%
8%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2003 |
NEX
1 - 3
BAS
32%
25%
43%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
THU
1 - 1
STG
35%
25%
40%
|
70 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2003 |
MEN
0 - 2
THU
7%
15%
78%
|
70 | 37 | 33 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
GCZ
2 - 1
THU
71%
17%
12%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2003 |
THU
1 - 1
SER
29%
24%
47%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
THU
3 - 2
WIL
49%
24%
27%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |