Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.5%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.1%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
26.3%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 1996 |
LUG
1 - 1
BAS
41%
27%
32%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 1996 |
BAS
4 - 5
GCZ
30%
27%
43%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 1996 |
SIO
2 - 2
BAS
59%
22%
19%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 1996 |
BAS
1 - 1
SER
53%
23%
23%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 1996 |
STG
1 - 0
BAS
47%
26%
27%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 1996 |
GCZ
2 - 2
FCL
68%
19%
12%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1996 |
FCL
0 - 1
FCA
44%
26%
30%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 1996 |
SER
1 - 2
FCL
46%
25%
29%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | +1 |
| 03 Aug. 1996 |
FCL
0 - 0
STG
58%
23%
19%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 1996 |
LUG
2 - 1
FCL
38%
27%
34%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |