Barnechea vs Univ. Concepción analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.6%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
10%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
20.9%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.6%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+25%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
1º
9º
4º
18
13º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
33 | 58 |
1º
|
49% | |
|
3º
|
26 | 54 |
2º
|
29.5% | |
|
2º
|
26 | 51 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
|
6º
|
24 | 49 |
4º
|
12% | |
|
5º
|
24 | 46 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
22 | 44 |
6º
|
8.5% | |
|
4º
|
26 | 44 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
12º
|
18 | 43 |
8º
|
13.5% | |
|
14º
|
16 | 41 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
22 | 40 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
22 | 40 |
11º
|
10% | |
|
11º
|
19 | 38 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
21 | 37 |
13º
|
16% | |
|
|
13º
|
18 | 36 |
14º
|
22% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 28 |
15º
|
57% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 16 |
16º
|
93% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
3% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
9% | 0.5% |
|
Next round
|
72% | 10% |
|
Mid-table
|
16% | 89% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barnechea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2024 |
DEP
0 - 1
BAR
39%
27%
35%
|
60 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
BAR
0 - 0
ANT
43%
26%
31%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
MAG
3 - 0
BAR
56%
24%
20%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
SAN
1 - 4
BAR
46%
26%
28%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 2024 |
BAR
1 - 0
USF
64%
21%
15%
|
58 | 52 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Univ. Concepción
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 2024 |
CSD
1 - 2
UCO
53%
24%
23%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2024 |
UCO
0 - 0
DEP
41%
28%
31%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2024 |
SAN
2 - 0
UCO
49%
26%
25%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
UCO
2 - 1
USF
55%
24%
22%
|
55 | 51 | 4 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
SAN
2 - 1
UCO
42%
27%
32%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | 0 |