Barnechea vs San Marcos Arica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.9%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.1%
18.9%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
1º
9º
2º
34
4º
13º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
59 | 69 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
43 | 54 |
2º
|
53.5% | |
|
4º
|
43 | 53 |
3º
|
47% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 51 |
4º
|
59% | |
|
7º
|
35 | 42 |
5º
|
18.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 42 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
5º
|
37 | 41 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
|
9º
|
34 | 41 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
6º
|
36 | 40 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 38 |
10º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
33 | 37 |
11º
|
16.5% | |
|
11º
|
31 | 36 |
12º
|
15% | |
|
13º
|
30 | 34 |
13º
|
28.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 34 |
14º
|
34% | |
|
14º
|
26 | 30 |
15º
|
75% | |
|
16º
|
18 | 22 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
53.5% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
46% | 57.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 42.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barnechea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
USF
1 - 2
BAR
18%
24%
58%
|
67 | 52 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2024 |
BAR
2 - 1
SWA
45%
26%
30%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 6
BAR
26%
26%
47%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
BAR
2 - 0
SAN
59%
23%
18%
|
64 | 58 | 6 | +1 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
CUR
0 - 1
BAR
41%
26%
32%
|
63 | 62 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
San Marcos Arica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 1
MAG
25%
26%
49%
|
62 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
CSD
0 - 0
SAN
43%
26%
31%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
2 - 1
DER
53%
25%
23%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
DSC
1 - 0
SAN
37%
27%
36%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
1 - 1
ANT
42%
26%
32%
|
61 | 62 | 1 | +1 |