Champions League Eliminatorias Semi-finals
Global 3-1Barcelona vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.8%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.2%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.6%
18.6%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
RSO
2 - 1
FCB
6%
16%
78%
|
96 | 79 | 17 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2011 |
RMA
0 - 2
FCB
50%
22%
28%
|
96 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
FCB
2 - 0
OSA
89%
9%
3%
|
96 | 83 | 13 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2011 |
FCB
0 - 1
RMA
61%
20%
20%
|
96 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
RMA
1 - 1
FCB
46%
23%
32%
|
96 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
RMA
2 - 3
ZAR
89%
9%
3%
|
95 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2011 |
RMA
0 - 2
FCB
50%
22%
28%
|
95 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
VCF
3 - 6
RMA
26%
25%
49%
|
95 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2011 |
FCB
0 - 1
RMA
61%
20%
20%
|
94 | 96 | 2 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
RMA
1 - 1
FCB
46%
23%
32%
|
94 | 96 | 2 | 0 |